This will be the Arab world's
next battle
Population growth and water supply are on a
collision course. Hunger is set to become the
main issue
collision course. Hunger is set to become the
main issue
Long after the political uprisings in the Middle East have subsided,
many underlying challenges that are not now in the news will remain.
Prominent among these are rapid population growth, spreading water
shortages, and growing food insecurity.
In some countries grain production is now falling as aquifers –
underground water-bearing rocks – are depleted. After the Arab
oil-export embargo of the 1970s, the Saudis realised that since
they were heavily dependent on imported grain, they were vulnerable
to a grain counter-embargo. Using oil-drilling technology, they tapped
into an aquifer far below the desert to produce irrigated wheat.
In a matter of years, Saudi Arabia was self-sufficient in its principal
food staple.
But after more than 20 years of wheat self-sufficiency, the Saudis
announced in January 2008 that this aquifer was largely depleted
and they would be phasing out wheat production. Between 2007
and 2010, the harvest of nearly 3m tonnes dropped by more than
two-thirds. At this rate the Saudis could harvest their last wheat
crop in 2012 and then be totally dependent on imported grain to
feed their population of nearly 30 million.
The unusually rapid phaseout of wheat farming in Saudi Arabia is
due to two factors. First, in this arid country there is little farming
without irrigation. Second, irrigation depends almost entirely on a
fossil aquifer – which, unlike most aquifers, does not recharge naturally
from rainfall. And the desalted sea water the country uses to supply its
cities is far too costly for irrigation use – even for the Saudis.
Saudi Arabia's growing food insecurity has led it to buy or lease land in
several other countries, including two of the world's hungriest, Ethiopia and
Sudan. In effect, the Saudis are planning to produce food for themselves with
the land and water resources of other countries to augment their
fast-growing imports.
In neighbouring Yemen, replenishable aquifers are being pumped well
beyond the rate of recharge, and the deeper fossil aquifers are also
being rapidly depleted. Water tables are falling throughout Yemen by
about two meters per year. In the capital, Sana'a – home to 2 million
people – tap water is available only once every four days. In Taiz, a
smaller city to the south, it is once every 20 days.
Yemen, with one of the world's fastest-growing populations, is
becoming a hydrological basket case. With water tables falling,
the grain harvest has shrunk by one-third over the last 40 years,
while demand has continued its steady rise. As a result the Yemenis
import more than 80% of their grain. With its meagre oil exports
falling, with no industry to speak of, and with nearly 60% of its
children physically stunted and chronically undernourished, this
poorest of the Arab countries is facing a bleak and potentially
turbulent future.
The likely result of the depletion of Yemen's aquifers – which
will lead to further shrinkage of its harvest and spreading hunger
and thirst – is social collapse. Already a failing state, it may well
devolve into a group of tribal fiefdoms, warring over whatever meagre
water resources remain. Yemen's internal conflicts could spill over its
long, unguarded border with Saudi Arabia.
Syria and Iraq – the other two populous countries in the region –
have water troubles, too. Some of these arise from the reduced
flows of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, which they depend on
for irrigation water. Turkey, which controls the headwaters of
these rivers, is in the midst of a massive dam building programe
that is reducing downstream flows.
Although all three countries are party to water-sharing arrangements,
Turkey's plans to expand hydropower generation and its area of irriga-
tion are being fulfilled partly at the expense of its two downstream
neighbors.
Given the future uncertainty of river water supplies, farmers in Syria
and Iraq are drilling more wells for irrigation. This is leading to over-
pumping in both countries. Syria's grain harvest has fallen by one-fifth
since peaking at roughly 7m tonnes in 2001. In Iraq, the grain harvest
has fallen by a quarter since peaking at 4.5m tonnes in 2002.
Jordan, with 6 million people, is also on the ropes agriculturally.
Forty or so years ago, it was producing more than 300,000 tones
of grain per year. Today it produces only 60,000 tonnes and thus
must import over 90% of its grain. In this region, only Lebanon
has avoided a decline in grain production.
Thus in the Arab Middle East, where populations are growing fast,
the world is seeing the first collision between population growth and
water supply at the regional level.For the first time in history, grain
production is dropping in a region with nothing in sight to arrest the
decline. Because of the failure of governments to mesh population
and water policies, each day now brings 10,000 more people to feed,
and less irrigation water with which to feed them.
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